A stochastic re‑analysis of a four‑course accelerated summer nursing block (16 credits, 14 weeks)
Deterministic workload audits mask heterogeneous task‑completion rates. After converting every reading, video, quiz, and clinical assignment into probability distributions and assigning efficiency multipliers to four learner archetypes, a 1 000‑student Monte‑Carlo simulation shows a mid‑semester mean of 73 h wk⁻¹ (5th–95th percentile = 60–87) and a Week 13 peak of 88.9 h wk⁻¹ (72–106). Sixty‑four percent of learners exceed the federal 60 h guideline during peak week, and five percent crest 105 h. Tail‑truncation strategies—not average reductions—are therefore imperative.
73.3 h
88.9 h
64 %
60 – 106 h
| Adjustment | Original | Revised | Weekly Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team project hours | 33 h total | 20 h total | −0.9 h |
| Clinical prep / post | 1 h + 0.5 h + 0.5 h | 1 h + 1 h | 0 h |
| Credit‑hour framing | 32–48 h expected | 58.3 h actual | n/a |
| Final weekly total | 73.3 h | 75.3 h | +2 h |
// Full Python listing available in the GitHub repo
// summer25_workload_analysis/listing_B1.py